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Drought eases tight grip on Texas
Wilson County News
November 10, 2009
Comment on this article
The drought that has plagued Wilson County since September 2007 soon may be coming to an end. With the rainfall received during the past two months, area residents are questioning if the drought is over. The San Antonio area received 11.9 inches of rainfall in October, making it the second-wettest October on record.
Determining if the drought is over depends on the criteria one is using to make a decision.
There is no doubt when the drought began. Rainfall amounts for the period from September 2007 until August 2009 totaled 23.8 inches, making the period the driest 23 months on record in the San Antonio area.
“Despite all the rains we’ve had since September, the drought is not officially over,” said Todd Flanagan, project meteorologist with the South Texas Weather Modification Association in Pleasanton, Oct. 30. “Although I would venture to say that we are definitely swaying away from the severe drought conditions experienced this summer.”
Agricultural drought
Using agricultural drought standards, the drought is far from over. An agricultural drought is when the land in stricken areas is either too dry to plant crops or producers are feeding hay or other supplemental feed to livestock.
Even though forage is returning, ranchers are contending with army worms that have plagued large areas of Texas. These have wiped out vegetation and hay that the ranchers were hoping to put up for use this winter.
Prior to the invasion of army worms, the 2008-09 drought had totaled $1 billion in losses for Texas agriculture and was quickly approaching an impact of $4 billion, according to a July 17 letter from Texas Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples to the Farm Service Agency. Staples asked for financial assistance for those affected by the drought.
Wilson and Guadalupe counties were determined to be two of the hardest-hit counties in the nation. Guadalupe County officials in September reported the reduction of cattle numbers amounting to an $80 million setback locally.
Meteorological drought
To answer if the drought is over, many respond using meteorological drought references. Factors include precipitation and other hydrological conditions over a period of time. This type of drought measurement is assigned one of five levels -- abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme, or exceptional.
Using the Oct. 27 U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas, today 26.4 percent of the state is classified in one of the five drought conditions, with 0.9 percent of the state listed as D4, or drought-exceptional. By comparison, 50 percent of Texas was in drought conditions three months ago, with 16.8 percent in the D4 category.
According to this report, parts of Wilson County are listed in two of these categories. The majority is categorized as D0, or abnormally dry, while the southern part is considered D1, or drought-moderate. The northeastern part of the county is not in a drought category at the present time.
This is reflected in the unofficial rainfall reports for the area for the period from Aug. 28 until Oct. 29. Rainfall received ranges from 11.4 inches to 15.1 inches in the La Vernia and Denhawken areas, respectively, to 8 inches in the Labatt area.
Another drought-monitoring device is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, released by the Texas Forest Service and the AgriLife Research for the Texas A&M University System. This index, used by firefighters for probable fire conditions, equates the effects of drought with potential fire activities.
A rating of zero denotes no moisture deficiency and 800 is the maximum drought possible.
The Oct. 26 Keetch-Byram map shows Bexar, Karnes, Gonzales, and Wilson counties in the 1-200 range. Karnes and Atascosa counties are in the 200-300 range. Only two counties -- one in West Texas and another located on the border -- are still in the 600-700, or high fire risk -- range.
Winter forecast
So, is the drought over?
According to an Oct. 15 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report, above-average precipitation in Texas is predicted for December through February.
Rainfall predictions for the winter and spring are listed as “above-normal,” with 40 percent above-normal rainfall predicted in November.
For the period from December through February, a 50 percent above-normal rainfall is predicted, followed by 40 percent above-normal for March.
If predictions hold true, normal rainfall will return in the area from April until June. |
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