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AgriLife economist: Don’t blame current gas prices on corn, ethanol




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AgriLife Extension Service
December 7, 2011 | 2,858 views | Post a comment

By Robert Burns

COLLEGE STATION -- Feeling pain again at the gasoline pump? Don’t blame it on corn and the cost of ethanol.

Well, at least don’t blame it entirely on corn, said Dr. Mark Welch, Texas AgriLife Extension Service grains marketing economist in College Station.

True, the cost of producing ethanol has been driven up for a number of reasons, including a higher cost of corn, but there are other factors that have a bigger effect on the price consumers see at the gasoline pump, Welch said.

There’s no argument that corn prices are relatively high and the failure of a large amount of the Texas crop was a factor, he said. On an average year, Texas farmers harvest about 200 million bushels, but current crop projections are about half of that. And though not affected by drought, as the Texas crop was, Corn Belt yields this year were “disappointing.”

“Tight supplies put an upward pressure on corn prices, which is putting a squeeze on the profit margins of ethanol producers.”

If ethanol margins are tight, then there is not an incentive to increase ethanol production, which will keep production down and prices relatively high, he said.

Welch said that it was understandable why some may look to ethanol markets as the culprit for higher gasoline prices. Crude prices have been very stable over the last few weeks, while ethanol markets have been stronger in the last few weeks.

“Ethanol markets and crude oil markets do not necessarily move in tandem,” he said. “Though linked, they do have particular supply and demand dynamics.

“I personally would not attribute what is happening to the price of gasoline today to what is happening in the ethanol market. All of these markets, energy and grains, have high degrees of volatility separately, too much so to blame price action in one simply on the other. There are too many other factors going on.”

Robert Burns has nearly 30 years’ experience writing about agriculture and agricultural-related research and works with the Texas AgriLife Extension Service.
 

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