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April report forecasts tight corn, soybean supply
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released April 10 by the U.S. Agriculture Department forecast tight corn and soybean stocks for the United States, confirming the ongoing impact of the extensive drought of 2012. The American Farm Bureau Federation released this analysis in an April 10 Farm Bureau press release.
This month’s report estimated an increase in 2012-13 corn ending stocks; however, the increase was not as drastic as predicted in the March stocks report. American Farm Bureau Federation economist Todd Davis said the stocks report found 400 million bushels more than the pre-stocks report forecast. The April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showed ending stocks at 757 million bushels, up only 125 million bushels from the March estimate. And although the projected corn stocks are up slightly from the March projection the stocks-to-use ratio is still straggling, at 6.8 percent.
“There is not a large buffer of corn available to withstand weather or other production related problems for this year’s crop,” Davis said. “Planting will start in the Midwest in the next few weeks, and the latest report, if realized, shows ending stocks to be the smallest since 1995-96.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced feed and residual use by 150 million bushels but increased the corn for ethanol demand by 50 million bushels to 4.55 billion bushels. Davis said an expected element of the report is the decrease in export use.
“USDA lowered export use predictions by 25 million bushels to 800 million. That is a 48-percent decrease from the 2011-12 marketing year, and if realized, would be the lowest corn export since 1971-72,” said Davis. “This is a reflection of our already elevated corn prices.”
While corn showed an increase in ending stocks, the report left soybean ending stocks unchanged from the March estimate of 125 million bushels, despite the pre-reports indicating a slight increase. The stocks-to-use ratio for soybeans is tighter than corn at 4.1 percent, and there is approximately a 15-day soybean supply on hand on Sept. 1.
Davis said wheat, corn, and soybean world ending stocks increased from the March estimates.
“The majority of world wheat and corn increases will come from China,” Davis said. “The increase in the world soybean crop will come from South America. Both Brazil and Argentina rebounded from drought and are expected to handle much of the world demand until the United States can harvest and become competitive again.”
The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released May 10, and will provide the first supply and demand projections for the 2013 crop.
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