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Crop report estimates corn, soybeans yield steady
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released July 11 by the U.S. Agriculture Department shows no change in the projected corn and soybean yields this month.
July’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected the 2013 corn yield to be 156.5 bushels per acre and the soybean yield to be 44.5 bushels per acre, paralleling the June report. American Farm Bureau Federation economist Todd Davis said corn production is down slightly from June due to slightly lower harvested acreage expectations.
“The corn crop is projected at 13.95 billion bushels, down from slightly above 14 billion bushels in last month’s report. Despite a decreased estimate, corn production is still on target for a record setting-year, if realized,” said Davis.
Davis added the soybean crop, projected at 3.42 billion bushels, would also be record-setting if obtained.
Both corn and soybean acreage were reflective of the acreage survey released June 28, upping corn planted acres by 100,000 to 97.4 million acres and soybean planted acres by 600,000 to 77.7 million acres.
The report predicts a dip in 2013-14 corn exports by 50 million bushels due to a later harvest and tight old crop corn stocks. The 2013-14 exports are projected at 1.25 billion, which would be an increase of 550 million bushels from the 2012-13 marketing year. Davis said the estimate might be optimistic because of South American competition.
Corn ending stocks are estimated to build significantly, from 729 million in 2012-13 to a projected 1.959 billion for 2013-14. Davis said the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate projections for corn ending stocks are higher than the trade pre-report predictions of 1.88 billion.
“Elevated corn ending stocks predictions will reflect negatively on marketing-year prices, reducing the estimated 2013 farm price to $4.80 per bushel from $6.95 per bushel in 2012,” said Davis.
U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to more than double from the 2012-13 marketing year, projected at 295 million bushels for 2013-14, up from 265 million bushels in June’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The increase will lower the 2013-14 projected soybean price to $10.75 per bushel, down from $14.40 per bushel in the 2012-13 marketing year.
“Due to a late planting season, the corn crop is on the verge of entering the crucial reproductive phase of tasseling. Moderate temperatures and moisture should ensure a good crop,” said Davis. “The late planted corn and soybeans need cooperative weather throughout the rest of the growing season as well as a late frost.”
August’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates to be released Aug. 12, will include the first field and producer surveys and provide the first projection of 2014 corn and soybean yields.
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